In the second half of the year, funds face tight, the stock boom is difficult to continue-ca1810

The second half of the funds face tight stocks is difficult to continue building hot sina finance App: Live on-line blogger to guide Sina Hong Kong APP: real time market exclusive reference stocks also worth the investment? What’s the problem? Where is the future? Sina Hong Kong stocks launched "Hong Kong stocks are not attractive" big discussion, with a rational and constructive attitude, welcome to pay attention to Hong Kong stocks, people concerned about the capital market, together with Hong Kong stocks for advice and suggestions, and conspiracy of Hong Kong stock market tomorrow. Please to hkstock_biz@sina. Text Sina Hong Kong stock columnist Hong Kong stock Unicorn   WeChat public number (xlgg-sina)   I think, from many aspects of the policy, you can feel the second half of the government wind direction has changed. The first half of the year should be worried about the economic development of the mainland is too poor to allow limited funds face relaxed. But in the eyes of the economy is not bad, the property market again crazy, but also urgently need to tighten the funds. It can be expected that the property market to the mainland stock market opportunities did still exist in the future, but I believe it will be convergence. Tencent (700.HK) has broken top in the past two trading days, creating a new record. With market value, Tencent increased to more than two trillion yuan, not only exceeded the market value of 941.HK, but also became the largest listed company in Asia, and entered the top 10 companies in the world’s largest market capitalization list. Hong Kong stocks as a listing of Tencent, it is also stained with a little glory. But because of the expected short-term price of Tencent will have a reasonable break taking, HSI rally may not be able to continue, so this period no promotion, but want to talk about the mainland funds face tightening. This year, the mainland property market is indeed hot. First tier cities Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, new commercial housing prices have risen more than 20% this year. Xiamen, Hefei and Nanjing often have higher rankings than the first tier cities in the list of increase, and the three cities and Suzhou are also called "the four dragons" by the industry". How can ordinary people afford such an increase in property prices? Therefore, the regulation of the property market is also reasonable. The first shot is Suzhou, 8 months have been re opened the restriction, the provisions of non Suzhou residents in the purchase of second housing, need to provide personal income tax or social insurance payment for 1 years to prove. Then to Xiamen, the purchase limit and loan limit order. Have 2 or more housing units and Xiamen residents family; with 1 and more housing units and non permanent residents of Amoy family; to provide the purchase before 2 years, 1 years in Xiamen successive pay personal income tax or social insurance that non family residence in Xiamen, not to buy 144 square meters of housing. In terms of loan limit, the down payment ratio of loans outstanding increased from 40% to 60%. Wuhan and Xiamen issued the same day limit loan policy, two suites down payment ratio from 3 to 4. Since then, Hefei, Nanjing and other core second tier cities will follow the pace of Suzhou, Xiamen, restart the era of restriction. After the introduction of these restriction orders, the purchasing power of the market can be expected to be pushed from the second tier cities to the first tier cities, and the market is worried that the first tier cities will follow the footsteps of the second tier cities to launch the restriction order, so they have to compete in the market. This explains why at the end of August in Shanghai and Beijing on 下半年资金面转紧 股楼火热难持续 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 新浪港股APP:实时行情 独家内参   港股还值不值得投资?出现了什么问题?未来出路在哪里?新浪港股发起“港股还有没有吸引力”大讨论,以理性、建设性的态度,欢迎关注港股、关注资本市场的人士,一起为港股建言献策,共谋港股市场的明天。来稿请至hkstock_biz@sina 。   文 新浪港股专栏作家 港股独角兽 微信公众号(xlgg-sina)    笔者认为,从多方面政策,可以感到下半年政府风向已变。上半年应该是担心内地经济出现太差的发展才有限度地容许资金面放松。但在看到经济未太差,楼市又再疯狂之下,也急着要收紧资金。可以预期,未来内地股市楼市再狂升的机会仍存在,但相信会有所收敛。   腾讯(700.HK)过去两个交易日接连破顶,再创历史新高。以市值计,腾讯增至逾二万亿元,不单超越中移动(941.HK)市值,也成为亚洲市值最大上市公司,更打入全球最大市值公司排行榜前10名。港股作为腾讯上市之地,也算是沾上一点光荣。惟由于笔者预期短期内腾讯股价将有一破合理回吐,恒指升势未必能持续,故本期未有推介,反而想谈谈内地资金面的收紧。   今年内地楼市的确火热。一线城市北京、上海、深圳、广州今年新建商品房价格已升逾两成。厦门、合肥、南京更经常在升幅榜中有比一线城市更高的排名,它们三个城市与苏州,更被业界称作“四小龙”。试问普通老百姓如何能负担这样升幅的楼价?因此,楼市的调控也来得合理。   最先出手的是苏州,8月中已重启限购,规定非苏州户籍居民在购买第2套住房时,需提供个人所得税或社会保险缴纳满1年证明。   接着到厦门推出限购及限贷令。拥有2套及以上住房的厦门户籍居民家庭;拥有1套及以上住房的非厦门户籍居民家庭;无法提供购房之日前2年内,在厦门连续缴纳1年以上个人所得税或社会保险证明的非厦门户籍家庭,不得购买144平方米以下的住房。限贷令方面,未还清贷款首付比例由四成提高至六成。   武汉与厦门同日出台限贷政策,二套房首付比例由3成升至4成。此后,合肥、南京等核心二线城市料将跟随苏州、厦门步伐,重启限购时代。   这些限购令推出后,可以预计将市场上的购买力由二线城市推到一线城市,加上市场担心一线城市未来还会步二线城市推出限购令的后尘,只好争相入市。这解释了为何在8月底上海及北京等地的楼市购买力如此夸张。但调控的手段相信是大方向,未来分别是何时出手而已。   银行货款方面,已有内地传媒指,银行现时在房地产信贷政策上,将进行总量管理,新增业务不涉入三、四线城市,也不介入地王项目,严格控制杠杆比例。这将减少地王的出现。   楼市已成为政府的双刃剑,放松才有机会让经济增长继续,但不控制又恐怕形成太大的泡沫。现时的限购令,以及限制银行贷款活动,就是要防止太多不理性的楼市情况出现。   股市方面,今年最疯狂的莫过于内地企业通过旗下保险公司展开的万能险业务吸取资金,然后再投资股市。这些保险产品若不能通过风险测试的,便不能当做原保险保费,只能算是规模保费的一部份。   今年头7月个月,看到从事万能保险较多便是宝能系旗下的前海人寿以及恒大(3333.HK)旗下的恒大人寿。   这些保险公司利用保险市场的方法吸取市场资金,再投资在其他方面。最明显一个位置便是投资在现时领先市场的内房万科(2202.HK)(SZ.2)。内地更有不少公司因为恒大的入股被称为“恒大系”,不时出现集体炒作。   由于现时的做法有漏洞之嫌,保监会8月底开始新一波加强监管。当局向保险公司下放征求意见稿,新规包括高现价万能险前三年退保须有罚金(增量保费);人身险 年金保证利率高于3% 3 .45%需送保监会审批(增量保费);人身险保单保障金额不得低于账户价值200%(增量保单)。   消息传出后,A股即时出现急跌,主因是市场分析指,有关新意见稿将令A股减少逾5,000亿资金。这害到保监会也要立刻出来回应指,现时只在征求意见稿阶段,以及市传的金额与事实不符。   不过昨天,保监又发布进一步完善人身保险精算制度通知。当中要求保险金额与累计已交保费或帐户价值的比例应符最少达120%,这要求已达国际级水准。   另外,在万能保险责任准备金的评估利率上限下调0.5个百分点至3%,高于评估利率上限的人身保险产品报中国保监会审批,防范利差损风险。相信万能险难以再如以前般增长。   至于近年新兴起的P2P借贷方面,银监会8月底又正式发布了史上最严的《网路借贷资讯仲介机构业务活动管理暂行办法(评估稿)》,旨在控制P2P行业野蛮生长,将逐步进入合法、规范的轨道上。   《办法》规定,明确规定了同一借款人在同一网贷机构及不同网贷机构的借款余额上限:单一的个体、单一的自然人在一个平台上的借款上限是20万;单一组织、法人在单一平台上借款上限是100万;单一自然人在多个平台的借款上限是100万;单个法人在多个平台的借款上限是500万。   P2P新规之下,相信会加速行业的整合,未来将有更多平台因找不到足够客户而被迫倒闭,但对既有的行业大哥则没有大影响。   笔者认为,从多方面政策,可以感到下半年政府风向已变。上半年应该是担心内地经济出现太差的发展才有限度地容许资金面放松。但在看到经济未太差,楼市又再疯狂之下,也急着要收紧资金。可以预期,未来内地股市楼市再狂升的机会仍存在,但相信会有所收敛。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: