Eastern Futures demand inflection point has now been high iron short onavo protect

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Orient Futures: demand inflection point iron rallies clients view the latest market research report points: real estate, the high point of the year has now, the second half is expected to decline in steel production is facing an inflection point, the price of iron ore bearing steel supply side reforms will hurt a part of production demand has begun to weaken trading strategy: (1701 varieties: iron ore i1701) directions: point: 400-460 empty open positions: 50%, adjust stop: more than 470 profit point: the first 370 goals, second goals 300 points: risk investment research team to improve the growth of infrastructure continues to grow the core logic of real estate policy changes in monetary policy changes in steel export growth: real estate has emerged the inflection point, ultimately reflected in the reduction in demand for steel; While the demand for steel and iron and steel industry to reduce the supply side reform will also be in two aspects of iron ore demand and prices caused by pressing; in the short term, apparent steel demand has declined, steel stocks cumulative; ore port stocks high number, although the high yield steel plant good profit due to demand for the leading iron ore port stocks of iron ore fell, but shows the cumulative steel stocks, the future will suppress the procurement of iron ore. Operational recommendations are short, and focus on infrastructure investment, real estate and monetary policy and export demand several major risk points. First, the real estate has been the high point of the year, the second half is expected to decline 4 in real estate sales, new construction area of the cumulative growth of 21.4% and 36.5% respectively compared to the same period; 4 real estate development investment and total investment cumulative year-on-year cumulative year-on-year respectively 7.2% and 9.3%, have reached a high point of the year and began to decline. A second city residents repeatedly hit a record high, the most expensive land are frequent, so the real estate policy tightening, March 25th Shanghai introduced the most stringent new Shanghai nine, Xiamen 5 city have also started to implement different levels of purchase or credit limit move. In the second half, with the reduction of real estate investment growth and policy tightening, the growth rate is expected to decline further. Figure 1: the new housing construction area of the cumulative year-on-year Figure 2: total investment in real estate development sources: Wind, an oriental Futures Research Institute in July M1 rose 25.4%, M2 rose 10.2%; the scale of social financing was 487 billion 900 million yuan, a record low for the year, suggesting that social liquidity is still abundant, but did not enter the entity industry. So the second half of the monetary policy stimulus space is limited. Figure 3: real estate development investment and the price of iron ore sources: Wind, Oriental Futures Research Institute from the historical data, the high iron ore prices and real estate investment positive correlation, each round of fall are accompanied by the real estate industry downturn. The first round of decline from September 2011 to September 2012, real estate investment growth fell from 32% to 16%, down nearly 50%, while the price of iron ore fell from $180 tons to $90 tons, the decline was also.相关的主题文章: